How can risk be defined?

There does not seem to be much in common between the risk a gambler takes to get rich and the ‘disasters’ caused by certain industrial accidents, which are at the heart of INERIS's field of expertise. However, the concept of risk is cross-cutting, which makes it difficult to grasp: it applies to all aspects of life, in both the private and public spheres.

One of the first analyses of the growing importance of this concept in our contemporary culture was conducted by German sociologist Ulrich Beck in a book published in 1986, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity.

Beck's theory is based on the observation of a ‘rupture within modernity’, manifested by the questioning of the ‘religion of progress’. The notion of progress that has underpinned the development of industrial societies since the 19th century is still considered to be a source of wealth. But it is now also seen as a source of threats, dangers and risks to health and safety, which U. Beck identifies as the components of the concept of ‘risk’. The predominant issue of ‘wealth distribution’ is giving way to the issue of ‘risk management’. This is becoming central to modern societies, which are witnessing a loss of confidence in science and technology, insofar as risks are not considered to be under control.

And today... what place do risks occupy in society?
Risk, disaster, threat, vulnerability, resilience... Beck's seminal analysis has since been refined and expanded: the risk society is also a society of risk assessment, where ‘risk science’, i.e. scientific knowledge about risks, has been developed and professionalised to support public decision-making in debates about societal choices where knowledge is lacking.
The Covid-19 pandemic has marked the entry of industrial societies into an era of widespread instability that is accelerating this apparent paradox. On the one hand, a deep crisis of confidence in institutions and in the knowledge on which they are based is combined with the emergence of a ‘post-truth’ regime fuelled by the ‘digital information society’ and social media. The notion of ‘post-truth’ reflects a tendency to relegate scientific facts and their interpretation, previously regarded as the bearers of recognised ‘truth’, to the status of opinions among others. On the other hand, the ecological emergency, the acceleration of global warming and the succession of health crises are keeping risk science at the heart of societal debates.

Do not confuse ‘risk’ with ‘danger’

The most commonly proposed synonyms for the term ‘risk’ associate it with negative connotations (danger, peril, threat, disadvantage), neutral connotations (chance, hazard, responsibility, challenge) and, to a lesser extent, positive connotations (opportunity, fortune).
In everyday language, risk and danger are therefore interchangeable terms. However, risk is not synonymous with danger: it combines the idea of uncertainty with danger.
It is probably no coincidence that, historically, the modern concept of ‘risk’ became widespread in France in the 17th century, at the same time as the mathematical theory of probability was developed.

A debated etymology

The word ‘risk’ comes from the Italian word ‘risco’. Its etymology is controversial: Latin (risicum), Byzantine (rizikon), Romance (rixicare) or Arabic (rizq)... experts are still debating the matter. The most widely accepted theories derive this Italian term from the Medieval Latin resecare, meaning ‘to cut’, or from the Arabic rizq, ‘gift of divine providence’.

One meaning can hide another

In its modern sense, the word risk has two distinct meanings: it refers both to the possibility of danger and to the potential consequences of that danger. In the first case, the definition emphasises the source of the risk, while in the second, it focuses on the target exposed to the risk. Risk encompasses both the concept of danger and the concept of exposure.
This dual meaning has influenced the development of contemporary approaches to risk prevention and management. A potentially dangerous event only generates risk if it is likely to harm human, environmental, economic or cultural interests.
A natural risk, for example, arises from the combination of a random natural phenomenon (hurricane, volcanic eruption, etc.), its possible effects on the immediate environment and the presence of people, property or activities in that immediate environment. The distinction is important. For example, a severe storm in a deserted area poses little risk, but the situation is very different if the storm occurs in a heavily urbanised area.

Mediterranean origins

The word ‘risco’ or “rischio”, used since the 13th century by Italian notaries and merchants, had a specific meaning related to property insurance in the context of commercial shipping. It referred to ‘the risk incurred by goods transported by sea’. It was with this meaning that the word ‘risk’ came into use in France in the mid-16thcentury, initially in the feminine form. The meaning given to this term in the first half of the 17thcentury, ‘peril involving the idea of chance’ (Littré), combines the notions of “danger” and ‘probability’ that form the basis of the modern concept of risk.